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Live watch on every open Kalshi 15-minute crypto window. A swing is a side collapsed to ≤10% of its highest mid this window. A buy would only be taken when the swing is disproportionate in our favour — the modelled chance of getting back over the strike beating the ask by both a ratio and an absolute margin.
Buys are switched off. The model column is experimental and not calibrated: checked against the live book it lands within 3 points sometimes and 30 points off other times, because it is built from an unconditional distance-and-time distribution while the book also prices momentum and the current volatility regime. It is shown for interest, not as a fair value, and nothing trades on it.
Measured over ~28,000 settled windows, this market is efficient after costs: the one real predictive signal is worth +1.87c per contract at mid and +0.30c after the spread and fee — about exactly what it costs to trade.
Read-only. This page places no orders.